Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 2.542755e-01 0.299550 0.347595 0.402089 0.461897 0.525271 0.597228
2025-02-09 1.826668e-01 0.242258 0.310113 0.391911 0.486696 0.592002 0.716771
2025-02-16 1.389719e-01 0.207010 0.289799 0.395114 0.522803 0.670104 0.850384
2025-02-23 1.034633e-01 0.174388 0.266743 0.390453 0.546771 0.733140 0.967584
2025-03-02 7.226345e-02 0.140571 0.236465 0.371995 0.550398 0.769882 1.053077
2025-03-09 5.564187e-02 0.123561 0.225441 0.375981 0.580673 0.838628 1.177826
2025-03-16 3.984073e-02 0.103696 0.207007 0.367138 0.592275 0.882914 1.272247
2025-03-23 3.291377e-02 0.097148 0.207175 0.383645 0.637540 0.970655 1.422384
2025-03-30 2.448775e-02 0.085203 0.196861 0.383333 0.658802 1.026842 1.532724
2025-04-06 1.821638e-02 0.075471 0.188532 0.384719 0.681644 1.084860 1.645744
2025-04-13 1.420161e-02 0.069386 0.185489 0.393603 0.714913 1.157013 1.777858
2025-04-20 1.133368e-02 0.065054 0.184895 0.405954 0.753157 1.236235 1.920055
2025-04-27 8.900124e-03 0.061009 0.184546 0.419023 0.793501 1.320123 2.071249
2025-05-04 5.906065e-03 0.053175 0.175354 0.416370 0.809831 1.370849 2.178824
2025-05-11 4.223368e-03 0.048779 0.172550 0.424265 0.842193 1.444364 2.317929
2025-05-18 2.565575e-03 0.042530 0.164475 0.422003 0.858368 1.494951 2.426341
2025-05-25 1.082442e-03 0.033850 0.148669 0.404042 0.848600 1.507704 2.482674
2025-06-01 5.884029e-04 0.030549 0.145417 0.409103 0.875521 1.573557 2.612644
2025-06-08 1.776496e-04 0.025257 0.135484 0.400240 0.879085 1.605011 2.694906
2025-06-15 1.016846e-04 0.024701 0.138896 0.417987 0.926983 1.702303 2.870027
2025-06-22 1.673883e-05 0.021539 0.133722 0.417822 0.944707 1.754926 2.982825
2025-06-29 1.726877e-07 0.018952 0.129605 0.419385 0.965149 1.811664 3.101785
2025-07-06 NaN 0.017603 0.129276 0.428839 0.999167 1.889097 3.250647